The Chinese People’s Liberation Army: Should the United States Be Worried?

This Special Report examines the modernization program of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The essayists conclude that while this program bears watching, the U.S. military, assuming it too continues to modernize, will be able to maintain its lead in overall capability.

Litai Xue of Stanford University emphasizes communist party control of the military, and describes a case study in 1969 where the country went on full nuclear alert—without much organizational control.

Bernard D. Cole of the National War College states the primary concern of the Chinese navy is Taiwan, but downplays the idea that China intends to compete with the U.S. navy to defend sea lines of communication.

Dennis J. Blasko, U.S. Army (ret.), points out that Chinese military planners themselves say the modernization process for the army will not be completed until 2020.

Kristen A. Gunness of the CNA Corporation describes the problems that civil society in China is creating for the military, noting, for example, that as Chinese society becomes “grayer,” this puts more pressure on the military budget to pay for a growing number of retirees.