Decision-Making Under Uncertainty With Chatgpt

Master decision frameworks that prevent costly mistakes in volatile environments.

What you'll learn

Make faster, better-calibrated decisions under pressure.

Prevent costly mistakes by testing risky assumptions early and cheaply.

Establish clear governance tools (envelopes, logs, reviews) that build organizational trust.

Develop resilience: your systems will withstand shocks and adapt to uncertainty.

Build confidence using ChatGPT as a co-pilot, not just for information, but for structured reasoning, stress-testing, and decision modeling.

Requirements

No requirements.

Description

“This course contains the use of artificial intelligence.”This course will transform how you and your organization make decisions. Instead of fearing uncertainty, you’ll use it as a source of leverage—converting ambiguity into speed, learning, and resilience. With ChatGPT as your augmentation partner, you’ll leave equipped to design decisions that are faster, safer, and smarter.Why Mastering Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Transformed My Approach to Life and WorkAs someone who often faces complex choices under pressure, I've always believed good decision-making was mostly about experience, instinct, or just having enough information to feel certain. However, after completing the Decision-Making Under Uncertainty with ChatGPT course, my entire perspective on how to approach uncertainty has radically changed—and for the better!Breaking Free From Decision-Making MythsOne of my first "aha" moments came when the course challenged my deeply-held beliefs—those folklores like "trust your gut," "more data equals better decisions," and "we must have consensus first." I realized these weren't universal truths, but comfortable illusions that often held me back.Instead, the course taught me to embrace uncertainty through frameworks like Expected Value (EV), Optionality, and Robustness. The idea that I don't need perfect information to act decisively was genuinely liberating. Now, I find myself confidently making choices by clearly laying out probability ranges and accounting for downside risk. The feeling of clarity and control this gives me is transformative.Learning to Make Mistakes Quickly, Cheaply, and SafelyAnother transformative insight was the concept of a Cheap-Probe Engine—running small, fast experiments to test my assumptions without big consequences. Previously, I'd agonize over decisions because of the fear of getting them wrong. Now, with a simple 72-hour probe, I can quickly validate or invalidate my assumptions without heavy investments or prolonged anxiety.In my recent project, I immediately applied this lesson. We were debating two different landing pages, uncertain which would perform better. Rather than endless meetings, we ran a 72-hour low-cost test. The outcome? A clear winner within days—saving weeks of wasted effort and tens of thousands in potential losses. It felt incredible!Building a Decision OS—Personal and ProfessionalPerhaps most powerful for me was building a personal "Decision Operating System." This includes Decision Envelopes, allowing quick action within pre-set boundaries; Decision Logs, where I transparently record my predictions; and structured Decision Reviews, holding myself accountable with probability ranges and learnings.This system isn't theoretical—it's practical and impactful. Just last week, a decision that typically took 14 days of approvals happened in 2, because we'd already defined an envelope. The team felt empowered, management was impressed, and personally, I felt a huge weight lift off my shoulders. We were finally moving at the speed of reality.Augmenting My Thinking With ChatGPTThe integration of ChatGPT into my decision process was surprisingly profound. I'd previously thought of AI as something separate from human intuition. Yet, learning how to use ChatGPT as a co-pilot to simulate scenarios, run Monte Carlo tests, and challenge my assumptions was revolutionary. It didn't replace my judgment—it elevated it.ChatGPT helped me see potential blind spots I wouldn't have spotted alone. I discovered scenarios I hadn't even imagined, and more importantly, I could now articulate clear reasoning behind each choice, boosting my confidence and credibility immensely.Why You Should Take This Course—Right NowIf you ever feel overwhelmed by uncertainty, stuck waiting for perfect data, or nervous about costly mistakes, this course is exactly what you need. It’s not just theory—every lesson gives you practical tools you can immediately apply in real life.Imagine a life where uncertainty isn't intimidating—it's exciting. Imagine acting quickly, confidently, and safely—even in the face of ambiguity. That's exactly the life I’m stepping into now, thanks to this course.Whether you're a leader, strategist, innovator, or anyone navigating tough decisions—Decision-Making Under Uncertainty with ChatGPT is a must-have toolkit. It’s changed not only how I make decisions, but how I view uncertainty itself: no longer as a barrier, but as a source of opportunity, growth, and genuine excitement.I invite you to join me on this transformative journey. The future might always be uncertain, but now—armed with these frameworks and ChatGPT—I genuinely believe uncertainty is the greatest advantage we have.Are you ready to master uncertainty, too?

Overview

Section 1: Introduction

Lecture 1 Decision-Making Under Uncertainty is a systems problem

Lecture 2 Why Speed and Cheap Learning Beat Waiting for Perfect Data

Section 2: Probability, Calibration & Decision Math

Lecture 3 State Uncertainty Using a Decision Sheet

Lecture 4 Using ChatGPT to prompt for Decision Sheet

Lecture 5 Design a 72-hour Probe to Test Riskiest Assumption

Lecture 6 Model Any Small Decision as a One-Page Decision Tree

Lecture 7 Compare Asymmetric Bets Using Expected Value and Optionality Intuition

Section 3: Practicing Failure Modes: Pre-mortems & Red-Team Facilitation

Lecture 8 Run a Pre-mortem That Reveals Failure Before It Happens

Section 4: Decision Envelopes, Authority & Governance

Lecture 9 Create an Decision Envelope That Lets Teams Act Fast Without Approvals

Lecture 10 Measure Decision Quality, Speed, and Recoverability with Clear KPIs

Lecture 11 Design One Incentive Change That Rewards Learning Over Vanity Safety

Lecture 12 Run Decision Reviews (Post-Decision Audits) to Learn and Improve

Section 5: Final Exam & Capstone project

Business leaders, executives, and managers in fast-changing industries.,Strategists, consultants, and policy-makers navigating uncertainty.,Product managers, innovators, and operations leads seeking decision agility.,Anyone responsible for high-stakes choices where uncertainty is the norm.