Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice (repost)
Jim Q. Smith, "Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice"
English | ISBN: 0521764548 | edition 2010 | PDF | 248 pages | 1.8 mb
English | ISBN: 0521764548 | edition 2010 | PDF | 248 pages | 1.8 mb
Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners.
The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks.
The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.