Introduction to the Scenario Approach

This book is about making decisions driven by experience. In this context, a scenario is an observation that comes from the environment, and scenario optimization refers to optimizing decisions over a set of available scenarios. Scenario optimization can be applied across a variety of fields, including machine learning, quantitative finance, control, and identification. The scenario approach has been given a solid mathematical foundation in recent years, addressing fundamental questions such as: How should experience be incorporated in the decision process to optimize the result? How well will the decision perform in a new case that has not been seen before in the scenario sample? And how robust will results be when using this approach? This concise, practical book provides readers with an easy access point to make the scenario approach understandable to nonexperts, and offers an overview of various decision frameworks in which the method can be used. It contains numerous examples and diverse applications from a broad range of domains, including systems theory, control, biomedical engineering, economics, and finance. Practitioners can find "easy-to-use recipes," while theoreticians will benefit from a rigorous treatment of the theoretical foundations of the method, making it an excellent starting point for scientists interested in doing research in this field. Introduction to the Scenario Approach will appeal to scientists working in optimization, practitioners working in myriad fields involving decision-making, and anyone interested in data-driven decision-making.