Learn how to apply probability theory and statistical inferencing techniques to validate algorithmic trading strategies.

Optimal control methods are used to determine optimal ways to control a dynamic system. The theoretical work in this field serves as a foundation for the book, which the authors have applied to business management problems developed from their research and classroom instruction.

The book presents applications of stochastic calculus to derivative security pricing and interest rate modelling. By focusing more on the financial intuition of the applications rather than the mathematical formalities, the book provides the essential knowledge and understanding of fundamental concepts of stochastic finance, and how to implement them to develop pricing models for derivatives as well as to model spot and forward interest rates. Furthermore an extensive overview of the associated literature is presented and its relevance and applicability are discussed. Most of the key concepts are covered including Ito’s Lemma, martingales, Girsanov’s theorem, Brownian motion, jump processes, stochastic volatility, American feature and binomial trees. The book is beneficial to higher-degree research students, academics and practitioners as it provides the elementary theoretical tools to apply the techniques of stochastic finance in research or industrial problems in the field.

This work is aimed at an audience with a sound mathematical background wishing to learn about the rapidly expanding ?eld of mathematical ?nance. Its content is suitable particularly for graduate students in mathematics who have a background in measure theory and probability. The emphasis throughout is on developing the mathematical concepts required for the theory within the context of their application. No attempt is made to cover the bewildering variety of novel (or ‘exotic’) ?nancial - struments that now appear on the derivatives markets; the focus throu- out remains on a rigorous development of the more basic options that lie at the heart of the remarkable range of current applications of martingale theory to ?nancial markets. The ?rst ?ve chapters present the theory in a discrete-time framework. Stochastic calculus is not required, and this material should be accessible to anyone familiar with elementary probability theory and linear algebra. The basic idea of pricing by arbitrage (or, rather, by non-arbitrage) is presented in Chapter 1. The unique price for a European option in a single-period binomial model is given and then extended to multi-period binomial models. Chapter 2 introduces the idea of a martingale measure for price processes. Following a discussion of the use of self-?nancing tr- ing strategies to hedge against trading risk, it is shown how options can be priced using an equivalent measure for which the discounted price p- cess is a martingale.

Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.

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Technical Analysis (SMA and RSI), Time Series Analysis (ARIMA and GARCH), Machine Learning and Mean-Reversion Strategies

Advanced computational methods are often employed for the solution of modelling and decision-making problems. This book addresses issues associated with the interface of computing, optimisation, econometrics and financial modelling. Emphasis is given to computational optimisation methods and techniques. The first part of the book addresses optimisation problems and decision modelling, with special attention to applications of supply chain and worst-case modelling as well as advances in the methodological aspects of optimisation techniques. The second part of the book is devoted to optimisation heuristics, filtering, signal extraction and various time series models. The chapters in this part cover the application of threshold accepting in econometrics, the structure of threshold autoregressive moving average models, wavelet analysis and signal extraction techniques in time series. The third and final part of the book is about the use of optimisation in portfolio selection and real option modelling.

Separation of signal from noise is the most fundamental problem in data analysis, and arises in many fields, for example, signal processing, econometrics, acturial science, and geostatistics. This book introduces the local regression method in univariate and multivariate settings, and extensions to local likelihood and density estimation. Basic theoretical results and diagnostic tools such as cross validation are introduced along the way. Examples illustrate the implementation of the methods using the LOCFIT software.

Stochastic Calculus for Finance evolved from the first ten years of the Carnegie Mellon Professional Master's program in Computational Finance. The content of this book has been used successfully with students whose mathematics background consists of calculus and calculus-based probability. The text gives both precise statements of results, plausibility arguments, and even some proofs, but more importantly intuitive explanations developed and refine through classroom experience with this material are provided. The book includes a self-contained treatment of the probability theory needed for stochastic calculus, including Brownian motion and its properties. Advanced topics include foreign exchange models, forward measures, and jump-diffusion processes.